Thursday, July 18, 2013

THE RUNT AGAINST THE TIGER



China claims a strangely-shaped swath of the South China Sea and West Philippine Sea as its territorial waters; which, naturally, interfere with the territorial waters and occasionally islands and atolls of surrounding nations.
Last year, China and the Philippines have had a stand off over the Scarborough Shoal… and by stand off, it mean nearly went to war. China claims that the Philippines were occupying Chinese territory while the Philippines wouldn’t back down from their claim to their land, even in the face of the Chinese Navy… until a bad storm came through giving the Philippines an excuse to de-escalate the situation without losing face (the strange thing in this comfrontation is that it looked like a runt trying to hold off a tiger’s advances).


However, tensions have remained high since, especially for Manila who rightly believes China is invading its territorial waters  (Scarborough shoal is only about 219 KM away from Philippine shores, well within her EEZ and 857 km away from China’s shores).
What is so important in this spits of rocky islands?  Well, for the Philippines, the waters around Scarborough Shoal are an excellent fishing area.  It is also believed to be rich in natural resources, like oil and natural gas below the bottom of the sea.
For China, in addition to the natural resources, occupying Scarborough Shoal and surrounding waters is a peaceful way to expand their reach and further intimidate the Asian-Pacific allies of the United States.
Unlike Japan; which is defending the Senkaku Islands with their defense forces and a promise of help from the United States; the Philippines decided to rely on a United Nations Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) tribunal decide.
You are reading it right, the United Nations will now host a tribunal to resolve the Scarborough Shoal dispute between China and the Philippines.  This can end one of three ways.
1. The UN tribunal gives water rights and Scarborough Shoal to China (this would be unthinkable for the Philippines).
2. The UN tribunal gives water rights and Scarborough Shoal to the Philippines; and China ignores the ruling, continuing to occupy the area and claim it as its own.
3. The UN tribunal recognizes the area as international waters or divides the waters and rights to Scarborough Shoal between the two countries; and China still ignores the ruling, continuing to occupy the  Scarborough Shoal area and claim it as its own.
The wild card that may prevent the last two options from turning out, and it is predictableb that the US Pacific Fleet sends some vessels to the Scarborough Shoal to enforce the UN Law of the Sea tribunal’s ruling with Philippine approval. (The US is also eyeing the area as it will ensure its inclusion to her sphere of influence and control the commercial and military routes in the area.)
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