ANALYTICAL APPROACH TO TURKEY’S VIOLENT REACTION TO
THE SPREADING PROTESTS.
The rapid escalation of the
anti-government protest in Turkey in recent days has exposed a number of long-dormant fault lines
in the country's complex political landscape that
began peacefully in May 28, 2013 when a small group of environmentalist youths
gathered in Taksim Square in Istanbul for a sit-in to protest a planned demolition of walls, uprooting
of trees and the perceived desecration of historical sites in the square's Gezi
Park. The demonstration turned violent the night of May 30, when police tried
to break up what had grown to more than 100 protesters. The next day The environmental
protesters were joined by high-level
representatives of the Justice and Development Party's main opposition, the
secular Republican People's Party (known as CHP). The message of the protests
soon evolved from saving Gezi Park's trees to condemning Erdogan and his party
for a litany of complaints. Anti-government chants included "Down with the
dictator," "Tayyip, resign," and "Unite against
fascism."
The protests spread rapidly when the weekend began, with more
than 10,000 people gathering in Taksim Square on June 1. Many more
protestesters made their way to the square from the district of Kadikoy, a
Republican People's Party stronghold on the Asian side of Istanbul, by walking
across the Bosphorus Bridge banging pots and pans in defiance of laws against
pedestrian use of the bridge. When some reportedly threw Molotov cocktails, fireworks
and stones at police charged using tear gas and water cannons on the
protesters. However, this quickly drew condemnation, leading the government to
temporarily withdraw police at the cost of allowing more protesters to gather.
Erdogan, while admitting excessive force was used by the police
and ordering an investigation of the matter, he defiantly said that he would
not give in to "wild extremists" who belong to an
"ideological" as opposed to "environmental" movement and
that he would bring out a million supporters from his party for every 100,000
protesters. The same night, riots broke out and some 5,000 protesters threw
stones at the prime minister's office in the Besiktas neighborhood in Istanbul.
On the morning of June 2, heavy rains kept protesters away from
Taksim Square save for a few dozen who huddled around bonfires. More protesters
made their way back to the square in the afternoon while Erdogan made another
defiant speech blaming the Republican People's Party for the unrest and vowing
to proceed with the development plans. Clashes between police and protesters
have resumed, and close to 1,000 people have been detained and dozens injured.
The size and scope of the protests must be kept in perspective.
By the end of June 1, protests had reportedly spread to Izmir, Eskisehir,
Mugla, Yalova, Antalya, Bolu, Adana, Ankara, Kayseri and Konya. Many of the
areas where protests were reported are also areas where the Republican People's
Party would be expected to bring out a large number of supporters. Konya,
Kayseri and Ankara, strong sources of support for the Justice and Development
Party, were notable exceptions. The largest protests, in Istanbul and Izmir,
brought out predominantly young protesters in the tens of thousands. The
protests would be highly significant if they grow to the hundreds of thousands,
include a wider demographic and geographically extend to areas with
traditionally strong support for the ruling party.
The protests so far do not indicate that Erdogan's party is at
serious or imminent risk of losing its grip on power, but they do reveal limits
to the prime minister's political ambitions. Erdogan is attempting to extract
votes from a slow-moving
and highly fragile peace process with the Kurdistan Workers' Party to help him get enough support for a constitutional
referendum. The referendum would transform Turkey from a parliamentary system
to a presidential system and thus enable Erdogan, whose term as prime minister
expires in 2015, to continue leading Turkey as president beyond 2014, when
presidential elections are scheduled. The sight of protesters from the
pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (known as the BDP) joining Republican
People's Party supporters for the June 1 protests does not bode well for
Erdogan's plan to rely on those votes in the constitutional referendum. Though
the Justice and Development Party, which remains highly popular with Turkey's
more conservative populace in the Anatolian interior, so far does not face a
credible political contender for the October local elections or 2015 parliamentary
elections, Erdogan's political maneuvering to become president will face more
resistance.
The ruling
party's main secular opposition is alarmed at Erdogan's policies that
violate the Turkish state's core founding
principles. From social measures that ban the sale of alcohol after
10 p.m. to foreign policy measures that have Turkey trying to mold and
influence Islamist rebel groups in Syria, which are against the founding priciples that
Turkey must remain secular and avoid overextending itself beyond the republic's
borders. Also, the growing dissent against the party is not a simple
Islamist-secular divide, either. A perception has developed among a growing
number of Turks that the party is pursuing a line of aggressive form of
capitalism that has no respect environmental considerations as well as Islamic
values. Frustration is building over the number of concessions handed out to
Erdogan's closest allies in business circles.
The polarization of the state could be plainly seen in the
reporting of the Gezi Park protests. The protests appear to have emboldened
once critical newspapers such as Hurriyet to reassume an anti-ruling party
stance unseen in the recent years of Erdogan's media taming. Hurriyet has
broadcast Erdogan's "defeat" with headlines such as "Erdogan no
longer almighty." On the other end of the political spectrum, the
state-funded news agency Anatolia is reporting the protests as a
"brawl" between police and firework-throwing youth extremists, while
stressing a democratic message that the government permitted the Republican
People's Party to demonstrate in Taksim.
Furthermore, it is interesting to note that Yeni Safak, a
newspaper close to the ruling party, has condemned the park project and
sympathized with the protesters. Zaman newspaper, run by followers of the
moderate Islamist Gulen movement, has expressed the same opinion and the
Gulenists form a crucial component of the ruling party's broader support base
but also kept their distance from the ruling party. The movement has been
increasingly critical of Erdogan, strongly suggesting that he and his party
have become too powerful. Editorials from the newspaper admonished Erdogan for
his "excessive" behavior and sided with the protesters.
The developments in this protest is being closely observed by
the Tukish public and may influence the local elections scheduled for October
of this year. Erdogan and his party still enjoys substantial base support and
the opposition still lack a credible political alternative. Turkey is pursuing
a highly ambitious agenda abroad. Turkey was already highly constrained in
pursuing these foreign policy goals, but they will take second place to
Turkey's growing political distractions at home as Erdogan prioritizes the
growing domestic challenges and as foreign adversaries such as Syria try to
take advantage of preoccupied Turkish security forces to try to sponsor more
attacks inside Turkey.
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