RAPPLER | Aquino’s long political honeymoon is over

BY CARMELA FONBUENA
POSTED ON 12/26/2013 1:42 PM | UPDATED 12/28/2013 4:44 PM

DOWNHILL: President Benigno Aquino III is getting a hit in the media like he has never seen before. Malacañang file photo


MANILA, Philippines – Malacañang’s special treatment of the country’s most hated pork barrel scam "mastermind" Janet Napoles, its nonchalant attitude over the involvement of allies in the scam, and itshesitation to respond to the people’s call for the abolition of the lumpsum fund left a bad taste in some people’s mouth.


The squeaky clean image of President Benigno Aquino III and the promise of his Daang Matuwidcampaign were eroded by the realization that corrupt politicians remain in power under his watch. (READ: Pinoys think pork barrel misuse continues under Aquino)

The President took a hit in the media in a way that he had never seen before. The long political honeymoon, he must have felt, was coming to a close. And then Yolanda (Haiyan) hit and devastated towns, cities, and the President's record.

Government’s slow response, the power play, and the unstatesmanlike blame game hogged the headlines. Social media was nasty. And the most painful of all, it went on the world stage. (READ:Financial Times: PH typhoon knocks Benigno Aquino's reputation and World media in PH; Cooper slams slow Haiyan response)

Aquino was defiant. "Bahala na si Lord sa inyo. Busy ako (The Lord will deal with you. I am busy)," he told his critics in a statement that fueled another raucous exchange online.

When Secretary Herminio "Sonny" Coloma Jr took over Malacañang press briefings and Communications Secretary Ramon "Ricky" Carandang resigned, there were clearer signs that all was not well in Malacañang.

Disconnect with surveys

Malacañang can find comfort in surveys showing Aquino's ratings survived the political and natural disasters of 2013. He suffered declines in his approval ratings, especially at the height of exposés on the pork barrel scam, but these never went lower than the 41% vote he got in the 2010 polls.

"There were a lot of negative stories this year but the degree that it degrades the popularity of the President is not so significant," said political scientist Allen Surla of the De La Salle University political science department.

Social Weather Stations (SWS) surveys show his satisfaction ratings dropped from "very good" in June to "good" in September, following the pork barrel fiasco. But he seemed unaffected by Super Typhoon Yolanda because he maintained his "good" ratings in the newly released December survey. (READ:Aquino gets 'very good' grade in 2013 – SWS)

Ad veteran Yolanda Ong said Aquino is not in danger of losing general support. "What I'm seeing with 48% is, he is coming close to his 41% in 2010, the percentage of voters who supported him. His voters are intact. It means he may be losing those who didn’t vote for him,” said campaign strategist Yolanda Ong, who campaigned for Aquino.

Aquino is probably losing the people who did not vote for him but gave him the benefit of the doubt. "They're the ones who are probably back to being discontented," Ong added.

Midway in his presidency, Aquino is definitely doing better than all his predecessors post-Marcos – former presidents Gloria Arroyo and Joseph Estrada, both of whom suffered single-digit satisfaction ratings on their 2nd year into their presidencies.

After 3 months in office it was President Fidel Ramos who could boast of higher satisfaction ratings (66%) compared to Aquino (60%). But midway his presidency in June 1995, Ramos' approval ratings dropped to 24%. Aquino's June 2013 grade stood at 64% before dipping to 49% in December. He also fared slightly better compared to his mother Corazon Aquino, who also enjoyed "good" ratings at around the same time of her presidency.

Different psychology

Online, criticism tends to be more harsh but this apparently does not reflect the sentiment of the majority.

Pulse Asia chief research fellow Ana Tabunda said about 20% of the population is connected to the Internet but not all of them are politically active. "Even if our people are using Facebook, they're not doing it to get news. The source of news is still TV," Tabunda said.

Those who have the time and interest to pay close attention to what government does are mostly from the privileged crowd. The poor have to worry about the food on their table.

"There's different psychology between the general public and the people online," said Surla. While some people online blamed the President for the shortcomings of government response to Yolanda because of command responsibility, Surla said the people around Aquino may have deflected criticism away from him.

"These people are taking the flak for the President, wittingly or unwittingly," he said. Surla noted that it is Interior Secretary Manuel "Mar" Roxas II taking the hit for the President for the government's shortcomings in handling Yolanda.

For Tabunda, Aquino survived the controversies of 2013 because not a single issue showed that he himself was corrupt, as if it were the singular issue that mattered to Filipinos. "It's not going into his pocket," Tabunda said, referring to government funds.

Media amplifies social media

By itself the social media is not a threat. The threat remains to be from traditional media, where most Filipinos get their information, said Surla.

But here's the thing. The traditional media is fond of echoing the social media – "loves them," said an observer – because it is the natural hangout place for people who closely watch politics. Politicians, academics, NGOs and fellow journalists are all over the place.

Tabunda explained: "Media is very active in the social media. It would seem that a lot of people [have] the same opinion as the people we call netizens. But it's not the case even if let's say 20% have access to the Internet."

The questions now are: How much of the growing dissatisfaction of people online, which is amplified when reported in the traditional media, will continue? And how much of it will rub off on the general public?

"If it lands in the front pages and prime time, it becomes more threatening. The general public will pay attention," said Surla.

Opposition blocks

Despite the good ratings, the new SWS survey still shows warning signs.

It shows a sharp decline in approval from those who live in the country's National Capital Region (NCR) – from 38% in September to 22% in December. But traditionally, this is where the more critical of the population are – as seen during the time of Estrada and Arroyo.

In the urban areas, approval is down 5 percentage points from 47% in September to 42% in December.

These blocks fit the demographics of people who are active on social media.

Just last year the same crowd lavished Aquino with praise for leading the way in removing a controversial chief justice and passing critical bills like the Reproductive Health Law and the Sin Tax Law. (READ:2012 a banner year for Aquino's Congress) This year, they are less approving.

But Ong said Aquino doesn't have to worry about his legacy yet. A lot of things can still happen with two more years in his term.

In January 2014, the country will shift its focus back to Malacañang's supposed pork barrel funds as the Supreme Court is set to tackle the Disbursement Acceleration Program (DAP). With the 2016 presidential elections not too far away, who knows where the issue will go. 

– Rappler.com